Sat, Mar 8, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 5, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 312 | 07 | 532 |
| WPG | 112 | 115 | 122 | 349 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:54OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:59WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 17:37OTTJared CowenAssists: Ales Hemsky, Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 2:03OTTEric GrybaAssists: Milan Michalek, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 4:15WPGToby EnstromPPAssists: Evander Kane · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 8:58OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.20 xG4–2
- P2 9:36OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky · Snap, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 2:13WPGDustin ByfuglienUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG5–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 4:38OTTEric Gryba: Interference2 min
- P1 5:28OTTColin Greening: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:58WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:34WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:11OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:58OTTJared Cowen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:29OTTJared Cowen: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:29OTTEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:29WPGEric Tangradi: Charging2 min
- P2 5:29WPGEric Tangradi: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:29WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:20WPGDevin Setoguchi: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:27OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:10OTTMatt Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:06WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:06OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:12OTTCody Ceci: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frolik won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Hoffman10:32
xG 0.89–0.26 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:23
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Kassian – Condra – Zibanejad4:04
xG 0.05–0.14 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek10:31
xG 0.41–1.18 (26%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci10:14
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Methot – Karlsson14:22
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Gryba – Cowen11:40
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Setoguchi – Little4:24
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Frolik – Kane3:43
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Slater – Tangradi – Peluso2:42
xG 0.02–0.01 (64%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Frolik – Halischuk5:23
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba9:52
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Pardy – Ellerby7:16
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian10:54
xG 0.36–0.78 (31%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).