Sat, Mar 8, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 112 | 210 | 00 | 331 |
| TOR | 214 | 011 | 110 | 11 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21TORJake GardinerAssists: Troy Bodie · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 3:38TORNazem KadriAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 18:02PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Jakub Voracek, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 7:19PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 13:34TORMason RaymondAssists: Jay McClement, Troy Bodie · Snap, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 17:28PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Brayden Schenn, Michael Raffl · Slap, 0.23 xG3–3
- OT 2:21TORJoffrey LupulGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:41TORPeter Holland: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:22PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:26TORMason Raymond: Interference2 min
- P2 8:19PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:19TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:59PHIVincent Lecavalier: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:51PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek14:33
xG 0.94–0.18 (84%)attempts 27–10goals 2–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier3:04
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn11:48
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Read – Couturier – Raffl11:04
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn15:57
xG 0.97–0.60 (62%)attempts 26–12goals 3–0
- Streit – MacDonald7:22
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann2:12
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak16:26
xG 1.01–0.98 (51%)attempts 16–29goals 0–1
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri11:58
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Holland9:19
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Rielly9:04
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Ranger – Rielly2:55
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner2:47
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).