Sat, Mar 8, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 115 | 010 | 233 |
| WSH | 09 | 010 | 314 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:58PHXBrandon McMillanAssists: Keith Yandle, Antoine Vermette · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 3:20PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Michael Stone, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.51 xG2–0
- P3 9:45WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Eric Fehr, Jay Beagle · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 10:17WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 14:47WSHTroy BrouwerPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:58PHXAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
- P2 1:50WSHJack Hillen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:43WSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:11WSHBrooks Laich: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:37PHXDavid Moss: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Moss – Klinkhammer9:20
xG 0.17–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – McMillan10:40
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker10:03
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Erat – Vrbata – Chipchura11:21
xG 0.27–0.91 (23%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson15:17
xG 0.38–0.34 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Summers – Stone11:43
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson2:19
xG 0.01–0.10 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPenner – Brouwer – Johansson7:52
xG 0.56–0.14 (79%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Stoa – Beagle – Wilson5:49
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:10
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson4:07
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson12:59
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Green – Orlov17:11
xG 0.93–0.43 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:18
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).