Sat, Mar 8, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 118 | 18 | 335 |
| DAL | 17 | 113 | 218 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31DALJamie BennAssists: Rich Peverley, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:32MINErik HaulaSHAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:55DALAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 11:15MINCharlie CoylePPAssists: Matt Moulson, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 1:23MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 11:11DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Erik Cole, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–3
- P3 15:11DALErik ColeGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:14MINClayton Stoner: Delaying game2 min
- P2 1:51MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:22DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 5:22DALJamie Benn: Delaying game2 min
- P2 9:47DALShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:42DALRyan Garbutt: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:26MINMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:37MINErik Haula: Charging5 min · PPG
- P3 6:37MINErik Haula: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Moulson – Coyle9:28
xG 0.71–0.13 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund10:05
xG 0.92–0.43 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter7:04
xG 0.11–0.17 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Niederreiter2:01
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon14:13
xG 1.08–0.59 (65%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Scandella – Brodin9:12
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon2:25
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Chiasson – Eakin9:08
xG 0.76–0.54 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Nichushkin5:03
xG 0.03–0.05 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin9:38
xG 0.70–0.78 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt8:53
xG 0.13–0.51 (21%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Connauton10:16
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Dillon14:50
xG 0.97–0.98 (50%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Daley – Goligoski13:07
xG 0.59–0.75 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).