Sat, Mar 8, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 03 | 111 | 09 | 123 |
| VAN | 02 | 16 | 16 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:13CGYBrian McGrattanAssists: Tyler Wotherspoon, Ben Hanowski · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 5:45VANDarren ArchibaldAssists: Jordan Schroeder · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P3 5:00VANYannick WeberGWGAssists: David Booth, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:22CGYChris Butler: Holding2 min
- P1 5:54VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:53CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:53VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:00VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:08VANChris Higgins: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:42VANChris Higgins: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 17:52VANChris Higgins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Matthias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Galiardi – Colborne – Monahan10:39
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Byron – Reinhart – Granlund9:02
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Backlund – Bouma12:27
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Hanowski – Knight3:48
xG 0.03–0.69 (5%)attempts 3–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Butler2:30
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:23
xG 0.43–0.23 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Butler12:06
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Sestito – Matthias7:04
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Dalpe – Schroeder – Archibald4:29
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen4:57
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Sedin – Burrows – Jensen3:09
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Garrison8:37
xG 0.85–0.19 (82%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Tanev13:29
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber2:00
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).