Sun, Mar 9, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 115 | 415 | 542 |
| FLA | 07 | 18 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:00FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 9:58BOSAndrej MeszarosPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 7:38BOSTorey KrugAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 11:21BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 11:50FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 12:13BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 18:52BOSChris KellyENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.48 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:26BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:44FLAJesse Winchester: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:43FLABrad Boyes: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:22FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:34BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:09BOSCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:41BOSJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:27FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic12:32
xG 0.98–0.32 (76%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:01
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand3:12
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg9:11
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug11:24
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Chara – Meszaros15:00
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Krug2:27
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Pirri – Huberdeau4:26
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad11:17
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck10:21
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Gomez – Barch – Hayes4:25
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson9:34
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Olsen – Kulikov4:39
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Campbell – Gilbert16:39
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).