Sun, Mar 9, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 013 | 17 | 231 |
| BUF | 18 | 05 | 08 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:11BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Cory Conacher, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 1:34CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:39CHIBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:23BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:54CHIJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:35CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:45BUFMatt D'Agostini: Holding2 min
- P2 14:12BUFMatt D'Agostini: Interference2 min
- P2 17:37BUFChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:07CHIPeter Regin: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:51BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:28CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Handzus
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Shaw – Saad10:09
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Sharp – Toews – Kane3:36
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bickell – Regin – Versteeg6:15
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig5:03
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook10:05
xG 0.57–0.13 (81%)attempts 15–2goals 2–0
- Leddy – Rundblad5:54
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson3:28
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Conacher8:11
xG 0.71–0.33 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Leino – Deslauriers – Flynn6:12
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott3:27
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Hodgson – Foligno9:12
xG 0.18–0.35 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Myers11:11
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Tallinder – McBain9:09
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Ruhwedel12:51
xG 0.33–0.74 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).