Sun, Mar 9, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 321 | 017 | 450 |
| EDM | 15 | 014 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 7:24EDMTaylor HallAssists: David Perron, Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 8:49LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Robyn Regehr, Dustin Brown · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 10:16LAKJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–1
- P2 15:49LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Jeff Carter · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 2:05EDMSam GagnerAssists: Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:42EDMPhilip Larsen: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:34EDMSam Gagner: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:56LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:56EDMJesse Joensuu: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:56EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:34LAKMike Richards: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:34LAKJeff Carter: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:20LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lewis – Clifford2:25
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Carter – Richards – Toffoli7:41
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar10:23
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Nolan3:30
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty16:38
xG 1.25–0.37 (77%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Martinez11:12
xG 0.73–0.48 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Doughty3:52
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Perron – Hall12:10
xG 0.82–0.64 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu8:24
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Smyth – Jones – Gazdic5:18
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov12:41
xG 0.35–1.27 (22%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ference – Fraser2:09
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fraser – Larsen11:45
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Ference – Schultz15:42
xG 0.67–1.20 (36%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).