Mon, Mar 10, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 27 | 16 | 07 | 320 |
| WSH | 19 | 117 | 07 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 3:03WSHEric FehrAssists: Jason Chimera, Joel Ward · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 3:52PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Olli Maatta · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 8:57WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Brooks Laich, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 12:40PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:41WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:21PITBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:32WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:31PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min
- P2 8:35PITJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:00WSHJason Chimera: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:43PITJussi Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Vitale – Sutter3:47
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Goc – Glass4:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Stempniak – Crosby13:26
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal4:19
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Niskanen15:02
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Orpik – Engelland2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Engelland – Niskanen2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPenner – Brouwer – Johansson13:25
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr12:21
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Beagle – Kuznetsov – Wilson5:36
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:04
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov21:35
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson13:22
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Hillen – Carrick9:35
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).