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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 9, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Dallas Stars 1

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.

DAL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ31301102326
DAL0808118134

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:00CBJNathan HortonAssists: Matt Calvert, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 1:33CBJArtem AnisimovGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
  3. P1 13:27CBJMark LetestuPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, David Savard · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–0
  4. P3 8:39DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.28 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 9:43DALShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 9:43DALShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 16:53CBJJack Skille: Interference2 min
  4. P1 19:54CBJMark Letestu: Delaying game2 min
  5. P2 14:04DALShawn Horcoff: Holding2 min
  6. P2 0:00CBJJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min
  7. P3 6:50CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
61% to win39% to win
← CBJ attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Fiddler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJDAL
26Shots on goal34
2.5Expected goals3.3
46Shot attempts76
26Faceoffs won30
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
23Hits18
23Blocked shots12
8Giveaways12
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.3 xGCBJ 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1005 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.

DAL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).