Mon, Mar 10, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 3, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 27 | 012 | 14 | 323 |
| CGY | 08 | 07 | 211 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alec Martinez · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:00LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Slava Voynov, Kyle Clifford · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 7:01LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 15:29CGYMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Mikael Backlund · Deflected, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 17:38CGYBrian McGrattanAssists: Chris Butler, Max Reinhart · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:50CGYMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:40LAKJarret Stoll: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:47LAKSlava Voynov: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:21CGYTyler Wotherspoon: Holding2 min
- P3 15:03LAKMike Richards: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Toffoli – Pearson4:28
xG 1.01–0.17 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar10:08
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Pearson6:12
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Toffoli5:46
xG 0.28–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty15:43
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Martinez12:01
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Regehr – Voynov16:54
xG 0.95–0.81 (54%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaliardi – Backlund – Colborne2:33
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Byron – Backlund – Colborne4:28
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Galiardi – Colborne – Monahan2:52
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Galiardi – Monahan3:40
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Butler2:54
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Smid – Brodie2:50
xG 0.12–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:44
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).