Tue, Mar 11, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 07 | 16 | 226 |
| PHI | 06 | 112 | 013 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 0:47PHINicklas GrossmannAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 7:42NJDJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Tuomo Ruutu · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:46NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:03PHISteve Downie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:11NJDMarek Zidlicky: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:52NJDBryce Salvador: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:16PHIJakub Voracek: Interference2 min
- P2 13:15NJDTuomo Ruutu: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 0:42NJDTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:33PHIClaude Giroux: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:40NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Ruutu – Zajac12:23
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Brunner6:18
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique7:56
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter5:00
xG 0.04–0.50 (8%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Volchenkov10:36
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Fayne – Greene11:42
xG 0.09–0.41 (19%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Merrill12:37
xG 0.20–0.72 (22%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Couturier – Raffl3:27
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn8:17
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 6–17goals 0–2
- Hall – VandeVelde – Raffl3:23
xG 0.19–0.10 (64%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier8:01
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann10:09
xG 0.92–0.27 (77%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn9:31
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann3:26
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).