Tue, Mar 11, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 111 | 09 | 125 |
| CAR | 013 | 27 | 115 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:33CARJiri TlustyAssists: Jordan Staal, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 4:22NYRKevin KleinAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Benoit Pouliot · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:18CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 14:31CARElias LindholmAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:16NYRAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:17CARManny Malhotra: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:20NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P1 11:20CARBrett Bellemore: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:20NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:57CARRyan Murphy: Interference2 min
- P3 8:12NYRMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:08NYRJohn Moore: Holding2 min
- P3 18:37CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello10:30
xG 1.23–0.79 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett5:19
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Richards – Hagelin10:40
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Nash – Stepan2:37
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Moore11:16
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:51
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman11:51
xG 0.63–0.96 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–3
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Skinner – Lindholm9:49
xG 0.91–0.48 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Semin – Tlusty – Staal12:40
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Nash9:55
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Bowman – Loktionov4:09
xG 0.02–0.46 (5%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore17:26
xG 0.73–0.66 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Harrison – Sekera3:03
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Sekera – Murphy14:26
xG 0.71–0.84 (46%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).