Tue, Mar 11, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 118 | 010 | 012 | 140 |
| CBJ | 18 | 014 | 315 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: David Legwand · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 15:11CBJNick FolignoAssists: Nick Schultz, Nathan Horton · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 10:08CBJBoone JennerGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 10:48CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Matt Calvert, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 15:48CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Mark Letestu, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:17CBJJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:44CBJJames Wisniewski: Delaying game2 min
- P1 12:47CBJBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:47CBJBlake Comeau: Diving2 min
- P1 12:47DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:02DETKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:12DETJohan Franzen: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:52DETTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P3 7:41CBJCorey Tropp: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Miller – Glendening5:50
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Franzen – Nyquist8:50
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Abdelkader – Emmerton5:30
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Abdelkader – Glendening2:23
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser13:46
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Quincey – Smith2:15
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith2:02
xG 0.04–0.11 (29%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu9:02
xG 1.02–0.26 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Horton – Dubinsky – Calvert9:34
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Umberger – Anisimov – Tropp8:51
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Jenner9:07
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Prout10:18
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Nikitin13:47
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Johnson – Savard15:11
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).