Tue, Mar 11, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 114 | 19 | 13 | 326 |
| FLA | 013 | 08 | 111 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:43PHXMike RibeiroPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Radim Vrbata · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 9:43PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 5:52PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Antoine Vermette, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 8:54FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:50PHXDavid Moss: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:32FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:52PHXRadim Vrbata: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:33FLAJoey Crabb: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:42FLAVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P2 19:25PHXJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:38PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:26PHXBrandon Gormley: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Moss – Boedker2:37
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Miele2:33
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Moss – Korpikoski – Miele2:44
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Vermette – Boedker6:14
xG 0.34–0.33 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Summers – Gormley9:21
xG 0.24–0.55 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson18:17
xG 0.76–1.08 (42%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Yandle – Stone14:06
xG 0.33–1.03 (24%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Pirri – Bjugstad3:59
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad6:42
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau2:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Trocheck – Huberdeau2:03
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert18:35
xG 1.16–0.54 (68%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Olsen – Kulikov2:50
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Kulikov11:35
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).