Tue, Mar 11, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 06 | 020 | 032 |
| PIT | 113 | 013 | 18 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:41PITJussi JokinenGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 14:12PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Lee Stempniak · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:25WSHTom Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:02PITMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:10WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:52PITSimon Despres: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Beagle – Johansson4:37
xG 0.80–0.12 (87%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Ward – Backstrom – Kuznetsov4:03
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Penner – Brouwer – Wellman2:39
xG 0.23–0.11 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Wilson4:36
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Hillen11:15
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:21
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Hillen – Carrick6:26
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Stempniak – Crosby13:00
xG 0.80–0.72 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Goc – Sutter – Gibbons2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Goc – Glass7:15
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal10:29
xG 0.39–0.60 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Niskanen17:13
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Despres12:34
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Orpik – Maatta16:52
xG 0.78–1.24 (39%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).