Wed, Mar 12, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 313 | 113 | 432 |
| MTL | 014 | 013 | 19 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:33BOSCarl SoderbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 9:25BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 18:32BOSMilan LucicAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 0:23BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 2:46MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Max Pacioretty, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:43BOSAndrej Meszaros: Interference2 min
- P1 6:15MTLBrandon Prust: Holding2 min
- P1 12:27BOSJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
- P2 4:41BOSJarome Iginla: Holding2 min
- P2 9:52BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:52MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:18MTLLars Eller: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:18MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:18BOSJordan Caron: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith12:26
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:04
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:37
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron8:37
xG 0.37–1.15 (24%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Meszaros11:43
xG 0.62–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Miller – Krug8:48
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Chara – Miller4:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Vanek7:03
xG 0.67–0.07 (90%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty4:00
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Eller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk3:29
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec3:58
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin16:51
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Subban18:31
xG 0.85–0.71 (54%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Murray – Tinordi9:19
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).