Wed, Mar 12, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 011 | 114 | 114 | 239 |
| COL | 110 | 18 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:24COLBrad MaloneAssists: Tyson Barrie, Semyon Varlamov · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:19COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jamie McGinn, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 8:23CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 10:53COLRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
- P3 17:43CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Andrew Shaw, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:53CHIDuncan Keith: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:36COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:36CHISheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:36COLCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P2 4:37COLNate Guenin: Interference2 min
- P2 13:00CHIPatrick Kane: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:55COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:58CHIAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28CHIMarcus Kruger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Toews – Kane6:49
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Shaw – Saad6:32
xG 0.27–0.29 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig5:52
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Handzus – Sharp – Kane4:34
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson13:02
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Rozsival – Leddy8:31
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:38
xG 0.24–0.93 (21%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:25
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – Carey – Malone4:49
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche7:58
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene12:07
xG 0.37–0.77 (32%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Holden12:21
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Holden2:07
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie10:42
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).