Thu, Mar 13, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 08 | 02 | 112 | 122 |
| BOS | 212 | 03 | 05 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54BOSZdeno CharaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:31BOSJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 8:14PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shane Doan · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:17BOSJordan Caron: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:29PHXMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:23BOSCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:40BOSMatt Bartkowski: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:12BOSCarl Soderberg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Korpikoski3:24
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Moss – Korpikoski – Miele4:09
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – McMillan9:53
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Moss – Boedker – Miele3:09
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSummers – Stone9:18
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle13:55
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson15:33
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic12:55
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Bergeron2:01
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith8:52
xG 0.27–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron5:23
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski13:44
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Meszaros2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton13:53
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).