Thu, Mar 13, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 2, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 16 | 011 | 225 |
| STL | 115 | 18 | 414 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:39EDMDavid PerronAssists: Taylor Hall, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:48STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 5:05STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: T.J. Oshie, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 18:03EDMMark FraserAssists: Boyd Gordon, Jesse Joensuu · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 0:42STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 4:25STLJaden SchwartzAssists: David Backes, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 7:56STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–5
- P3 12:56STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Magnus Paajarvi · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–6
Penalties (20)
- P1 1:16EDMMark Fraser: Holding2 min
- P1 11:39STLRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:58EDMTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:49STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:14EDMRyan Smyth: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:14STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:14EDMLuke Gazdic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:20EDMMark Fraser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:33STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:33EDMDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:33EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:33EDMLuke Gazdic: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:33STLRyan Reaves: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:42EDMTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:42STLVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:42STLVladimir Tarasenko: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:42EDMMark Fraser: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:42STLVladimir Sobotka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:41STLKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Jones – Gazdic6:32
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Perron – Hall11:20
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu10:09
xG 0.27–0.41 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov7:17
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Schultz12:33
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Ference – Marincin2:27
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Ference – Klefbom9:25
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Sobotka – Tarasenko8:26
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Steen – Backes – Schwartz11:31
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Ott – Roy – Berglund10:14
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Reaves – Paajarvi7:16
xG 0.12–0.43 (22%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Cole11:57
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:47
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk10:09
xG 0.48–0.31 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).