Thu, Mar 13, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 115 | 18 | 16 | 329 |
| LAK | 210 | 017 | 014 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Drew Doughty, Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 16:05LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 18:13TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 3:46TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Cody Franson, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 5:06TORMason RaymondSHGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:23LAKMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:17LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:38TORTim Gleason: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:42LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:57TORDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:41TORPaul Ranger: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:29TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Bodie – Raymond – Kulemin2:38
xG 0.04–0.04 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:32
xG 0.28–0.67 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri12:10
xG 0.18–1.05 (15%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Rielly8:36
xG 0.46–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner9:36
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ranger – Franson2:26
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Williams – Kopitar11:14
xG 1.30–0.13 (91%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Carter – Richards – Toffoli8:39
xG 1.00–0.14 (88%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – Brown – King8:28
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Nolan6:49
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Voynov15:46
xG 1.50–0.89 (63%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty14:23
xG 0.91–0.31 (75%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Martinez11:00
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).