Fri, Mar 14, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 113 | 011 | 217 | 341 |
| WSH | 112 | 26 | 13 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17WSHJoel WardAssists: Eric Fehr, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 11:41VANJordan SchroederAssists: Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:28WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 12:35WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jay Beagle · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 4:28VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Chris Higgins, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 7:34VANNicklas JensenAssists: Chris Higgins, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 10:19WSHMike GreenGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:06WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:31WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:11WSHJay Beagle: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:11VANZac Dalpe: Interference2 min
- P1 18:11VANTom Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:02VANTom Sestito: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:38WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 15:32WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:32VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Hansen – Matthias12:53
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Booth – Schroeder – Kassian12:03
xG 0.55–0.59 (48%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Sedin – Burrows – Jensen12:36
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev18:13
xG 0.77–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–9goals 3–0
- Garrison – Stanton8:03
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Bieksa – Edler13:26
xG 0.17–0.76 (18%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPenner – Brouwer – Johansson9:47
xG 0.48–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Kuznetsov – Wilson7:00
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr10:02
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Laich – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:10
xG 0.05–0.23 (19%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Carrick11:33
xG 1.29–0.26 (83%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Alzner – Carlson17:02
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Green – Hillen14:46
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).