Fri, Mar 14, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 07 | 16 | 01 | 0 | 122 |
| DET | 16 | 07 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:53DETRiley SheahanAssists: Tomas Tatar, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 8:43EDMRyan SmythUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
- 2. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 3. DET Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 4. EDM David Perron stopped
- 5. DET Tomas Tatar scored
- 6. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:25EDMNail Yakupov: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00EDMAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:33DETBrian Lashoff: Interference2 min
- P2 13:57EDMDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P3 9:33DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 17:06EDMBoyd Gordon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 1:21EDMMartin Marincin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Lander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Jones – Gazdic3:20
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Hendricks – Gordon2:48
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Perron – Lander – Hall13:48
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu6:31
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Marincin15:22
xG 0.80–0.78 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Larsen – Klefbom7:49
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz17:29
xG 0.09–0.86 (9%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Franzen – Nyquist8:36
xG 0.64–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–0goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Sheahan6:06
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Legwand – Franzen2:38
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Emmerton – Pulkkinen3:10
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lashoff9:28
xG 0.75–0.21 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser11:42
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:41
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).