Fri, Mar 14, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 3, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 16 | 214 | 011 | 331 |
| FLA | 113 | 12 | 37 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:59FLABrian CampbellAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 18:45NJDJaromir JagrPPAssists: Damien Brunner, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 2:02NJDBryce SalvadorAssists: Patrik Elias, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 13:13NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Damien Brunner, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 14:30FLAQuinton HowdenAssists: Scott Gomez, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 4:24FLABrad BoyesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 10:00FLAScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:27FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:57NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
- P1 18:12FLATomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:17NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:13NJDMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:03FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:03NJDPatrik Elias: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:03NJDPatrik Elias: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Ruutu – Zajac13:31
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter8:43
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique10:57
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Elias – Zubrus – Brunner10:42
xG 0.13–0.62 (18%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Volchenkov12:20
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Fayne – Greene16:03
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Zidlicky – Merrill17:34
xG 0.84–1.20 (41%)attempts 17–12goals 0–3
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Howden – Huberdeau2:43
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Trocheck – Huberdeau8:32
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Crabb – Howden2:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gomez – Barch – Crabb2:34
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobak – Kulikov16:23
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gilbert19:29
xG 0.91–1.11 (45%)attempts 8–19goals 3–0
- Olsen – Petrovic7:54
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).