Fri, Mar 14, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 28 | 17 | 18 | 423 |
| WPG | 211 | 011 | 010 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Kevin Klein · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 2:33WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.49 xG1–1
- P1 3:26WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 11:28NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 19:52NYRCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Kevin Klein · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 8:50NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:44NYRAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:01WPGDevin Setoguchi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:23WPGMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:53NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 17:41NYRMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:11WPGZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P3 14:10NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P3 16:12WPGEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against St. Louis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider7:10
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Moore – Boyle – Carcillo8:32
xG 0.16–0.30 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Pouliot – Hagelin9:06
xG 0.28–0.59 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 2–1
- St. Louis – Brassard – Zuccarello10:35
xG 0.04–1.19 (3%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Moore2:30
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Klein – McDonagh2:18
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal4:15
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Setoguchi – Kane9:17
xG 0.80–0.25 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Ladd – Little – Frolik10:29
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Peluso – O'Dell2:31
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Ellerby10:14
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba8:31
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian7:12
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).