Fri, Mar 14, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 6, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 013 | 616 | 04 | 633 |
| COL | 112 | 317 | 09 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:25COLJohn MitchellAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nate Guenin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 3:08ANADaniel WinnikAssists: Nick Bonino, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:21COLJamie McGinnPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 7:47ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 8:34ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
- P2 9:40ANACorey PerryAssists: Teemu Selanne, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 11:53ANABen LovejoyGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.02 xG5–2
- P2 18:08COLJamie McGinnPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.46 xG5–3
- P2 18:41COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: John Mitchell, Jan Hejda · Backhand, 0.06 xG5–4
- P2 19:11ANAMathieu PerreaultAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Luca Sbisa · Tip-in, 0.17 xG6–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:11COLBrad Malone: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:12ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:28ANALuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:35ANABen Lovejoy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:48COLGabriel Landeskog: Charging2 min
- P3 2:07ANAMathieu Perreault: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:07COLErik Johnson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P3 11:20ANAMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:31ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:31COLPatrick Bordeleau: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:31ANAPatrick Maroon: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Maroon – Palmieri6:30
xG 0.91–0.30 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Beleskey – Perreault – Silfverberg7:40
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano8:25
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Perry11:38
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Lindholm8:42
xG 0.86–0.11 (89%)attempts 17–3goals 3–1
- Allen – Lovejoy3:01
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa12:56
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene9:24
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Mitchell – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:44
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Malone2:34
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – Carey – Malone2:21
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson12:51
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Guenin – Benoit9:21
xG 0.33–0.69 (32%)attempts 5–17goals 1–1
- Holden – Barrie9:13
xG 0.12–0.78 (13%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).