Sat, Mar 15, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 013 | 18 | 130 |
| BOS | 116 | 114 | 311 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:28BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 17:24BOSJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Snap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 3:53CARAlexander SeminAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 12:49BOSChris KellyAssists: David Krejci, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 13:02BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Kevan Miller, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 19:50BOSTorey KrugAssists: Carl Soderberg, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:57CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:28BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference2 min
- P2 1:28BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference2 min
- P2 1:28CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 14:07CARRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
- P2 19:25BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:23BOSReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Nash11:16
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Semin – Staal – Loktionov2:29
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Semin – Tlusty – Staal10:25
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Loktionov5:17
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Murphy10:26
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Bellemore15:38
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Sekera – Murphy3:29
xG 0.20–0.21 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic12:53
xG 0.84–0.20 (81%)attempts 22–7goals 3–0
- Campbell – Paille – Lindblad6:13
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg8:39
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith12:06
xG 0.21–0.96 (18%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski14:14
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 21–18goals 2–1
- Chara – Hamilton14:49
xG 0.75–0.69 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Bartkowski – Miller2:39
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).