Sat, Mar 15, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 14 | 116 | 213 | 01 | 434 |
| MTL | 117 | 09 | 319 | 13 | 548 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38MTLDaniel BrièreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 3:08OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 17:10OTTZack SmithAssists: Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 1:54OTTAles HemskyAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 5:08OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 16:38MTLLars EllerAssists: Brian Gionta, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–2
- P3 17:56MTLBrian GiontaAssists: P.K. Subban, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:59MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 1:26MTLFrancis BouillonGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:48OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P1 11:20OTTAles Hemsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:38OTTAles Hemsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:48MTLFrancis Bouillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:06OTTJason Spezza: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:46MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:35OTTJared Cowen: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:50MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:56OTTChris Phillips: Kneeing2 min
- P3 14:14MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:14OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:14MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:14OTTMilan Michalek: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:42OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:42MTLTravis Moen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:42MTLDale Weise: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:12OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:26OTTBobby Ryan: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Prust won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:34
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris9:26
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek8:23
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:11
xG 0.81–1.10 (42%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Cowen9:07
xG 1.01–0.56 (64%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Phillips – Ceci12:02
xG 0.94–0.99 (49%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
- Methot – Karlsson15:46
xG 0.87–0.96 (48%)attempts 15–19goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Eller – Galchenyuk2:27
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Moen – Prust – Weise5:34
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec6:09
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Vanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:59
xG 0.53–0.88 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Markov – Subban2:11
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Murray – Weaver9:36
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Emelin3:33
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).