Sat, Mar 15, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 09 | 08 | 023 |
| TBL | 09 | 214 | 19 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:26TBLB.J. CrombeenGWGAssists: Michael Kostka, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 16:58TBLMichael KostkaAssists: Ondrej Palat, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 16:41TBLNate ThompsonAssists: JT Brown · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:31TBLRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:21NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference2 min
- P1 12:21TBLRadko Gudas: Diving2 min
- P1 19:52NJDMichael Ryder: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:19NJDJon Merrill: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 15:14NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:14TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:12TBLJT Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Ryder – Henrique5:24
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Ruutu – Zajac9:16
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Clowe – Gionta – Brunner2:16
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Josefson2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene13:06
xG 0.75–0.23 (77%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov11:39
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Salvador – Zidlicky2:05
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Purcell – Brown6:45
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Palat13:50
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Johnson12:24
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson7:42
xG 0.03–0.33 (7%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman12:18
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas12:51
xG 0.33–0.26 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle2:32
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).