Sat, Mar 15, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 2, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 218 | 05 | 231 |
| PHX | 211 | 06 | 19 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35PHXChris SummersAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, David Moss · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 9:43PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: Paul Bissonnette, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 7:46CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 15:37CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 8:49PHXShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Antoine Vermette · Tip-in, 0.37 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P2 3:58CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:32PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39CGYJoe Colborne: Interference2 min
- P2 11:23PHXAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:15CGYLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P2 14:15PHXShane Doan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:15CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:15PHXMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:46PHXJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:56CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:50CGYPaul Byron: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:51CGYTyler Wotherspoon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:49CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:03CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48CGYTJ Brodie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:48PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galiardi won the faceoff against Halpern
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Colborne – Monahan5:12
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Backlund – Colborne4:09
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Galiardi – Byron2:57
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Westgarth – Hanowski – Knight4:51
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:01
xG 0.91–0.20 (82%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Smid – Brodie2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Butler11:32
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Moss – Korpikoski9:38
xG 0.55–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – McMillan7:59
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Chipchura – Klinkhammer5:11
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Vermette – Boedker9:49
xG 0.16–0.99 (14%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle16:31
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Summers – Stone10:33
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson12:38
xG 0.26–1.03 (20%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).