Sun, Mar 16, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 12 | 120 | 07 | 229 |
| WSH | 314 | 06 | 113 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 6:57WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Joel Ward, Karl Alzner · Deflected, 0.32 xG0–2
- P1 8:44WSHJoel WardPPGWGAssists: Dustin Penner, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 17:15TORTroy BodieAssists: Mason Raymond, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 8:05TORDion PhaneufAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 19:56WSHTroy BrouwerENAssists: Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:58TORJay McClement: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:52TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32WSHJack Hillen: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:27WSHJay Beagle: Interference2 min
- P2 13:34WSHEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:30TORCody Franson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:58TORJake Gardiner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fehr won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBodie – Raymond – Kulemin6:56
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Clarkson – van Riemsdyk – Bozak4:26
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Kadri4:45
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri10:53
xG 0.18–0.63 (23%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Franson4:13
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ranger – Rielly5:43
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gleason – Rielly3:48
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Wellman – Kuznetsov6:43
xG 0.35–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr8:16
xG 0.86–0.58 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Beagle – Johansson5:08
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Kuznetsov3:49
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Carrick11:50
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Green – Hillen18:44
xG 0.89–0.56 (62%)attempts 26–13goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson15:23
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).