Sun, Mar 16, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 011 | 111 | 233 |
| CAR | 111 | 09 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Boyd Gordon, Justin Schultz · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 19:42CARJordan StaalAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 9:01EDMJustin SchultzPPGWGAssists: David Perron, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:23CARManny Malhotra: Holding2 min
- P1 14:35EDMDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:10EDMBen Scrivens: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:13CARDrayson Bowman: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:22EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:22CARRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:22CARBrett Bellemore: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:22EDMNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:24EDMDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:45CARJay Harrison: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:15CARAndrei Loktionov: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov9:29
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Smyth – Jones – Gazdic4:54
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Lander7:44
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Gagner – Perron – Hall13:13
xG 0.98–1.20 (45%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz16:04
xG 0.85–0.71 (54%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
- Petry – Marincin15:37
xG 1.02–1.20 (46%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Fraser – Klefbom9:57
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Gerbe – Staal13:57
xG 1.50–0.64 (70%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Loktionov2:04
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm11:34
xG 0.43–0.63 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nash – Bowman5:20
xG 0.21–0.85 (20%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Murphy3:28
xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Harrison – Murphy10:04
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Faulk3:02
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).