Sun, Mar 16, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 18 | 210 | 322 |
| OTT | 04 | 020 | 115 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:49COLAndre BenoitAssists: Patrick Bordeleau, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 3:10COLNick HoldenPPGWGAssists: Jamie McGinn, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 17:02COLJohn MitchellAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 19:54OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:24COLNick Holden: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:04COLBrad Malone: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:25OTTChris Neil: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Mitchell – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:53
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche9:06
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McLeod2:30
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene13:46
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Holden2:30
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson18:02
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Sarich – Barrie2:26
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Michalek13:29
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 17–5goals 0–2
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:10
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris12:39
xG 0.37–0.32 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Condra – Hoffman – Zibanejad4:39
xG 0.04–0.03 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson18:35
xG 1.13–0.25 (82%)attempts 27–11goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson3:15
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci14:40
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).