Sun, Mar 16, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 2, Buffalo Sabres 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 213 | 013 | 06 | 232 |
| BUF | 09 | 09 | 011 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:41MTLDale WeiseGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 16:07MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Alexei Emelin · Deflected, 0.34 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:20BUFJamie McBain: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:27BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:58MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:12BUFNicolas Deslauriers: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:09BUFCory Conacher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:09MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:35MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Flynn won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Plekanec – Gallagher11:16
xG 0.79–0.24 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Gionta – Eller – Galchenyuk9:37
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Moen – Prust – Weise9:41
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:16
xG 0.31–0.64 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin13:38
xG 0.99–0.38 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Subban18:39
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Weaver – Tinordi12:28
xG 0.18–0.78 (19%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Conacher10:50
xG 0.95–0.59 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott4:24
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Leino – Deslauriers10:04
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Hodgson – Foligno – Flynn10:57
xG 0.17–0.49 (26%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Ristolainen2:01
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Ruhwedel12:53
xG 0.66–0.55 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Weber – McBain10:49
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).