Sun, Mar 16, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 315 | 19 | 011 | 435 |
| PIT | 17 | 25 | 011 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Vincent Lecavalier · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 6:47PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 13:41PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
- P1 17:33PITBrooks OrpikAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Joe Vitale · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 5:50PITMatt NiskanenAssists: Rob Scuderi, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 12:11PHIMatt ReadSHGWGAssists: Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 16:19PITJayson MegnaAssists: Brian Gibbons · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:58PITRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:54PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:47PITTaylor Pyatt: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:55PHIBrayden Schenn: Interference2 min
- P2 10:36PHISteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:00PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:23PHIMatt Read: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn9:04
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Read – Couturier – Raffl2:37
xG 0.17–0.12 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:07
xG 0.36–0.35 (50%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier9:46
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Schenn11:55
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Streit – Grossmann11:24
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – MacDonald3:33
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Crosby – Gibbons3:59
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Gibbons – Megna2:15
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Vitale10:26
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Stempniak – Crosby – Megna2:06
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Engelland5:16
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Engelland – Maatta5:52
xG 0.48–0.28 (64%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bortuzzo3:22
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).