Sun, Mar 16, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 2, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 03 | 014 | 227 |
| WPG | 316 | 28 | 210 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:25DALAlex ChiassonAssists: Alex Goligoski, Cody Eakin · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–1
- P1 7:02DALTyler SeguinAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 11:54WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Toby Enstrom · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P1 17:02WPGToby EnstromGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrice Cormier · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 0:29WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P2 16:30WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 3:14WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Blake Wheeler, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–6
- P3 7:33WPGEvander KaneUnassisted · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:24WPGAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:43DALColton Sceviour: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:52DALBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:29WPGJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:42DALValeri Nichushkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:55DALTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:07DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:40DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P3 17:40DALJamie Benn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Sceviour – Roussel2:54
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Benn – Seguin3:33
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin8:34
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Whitney – Mueller – Chiasson5:36
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Goligoski15:12
xG 1.08–1.15 (48%)attempts 18–19goals 1–4
- Benn – Connauton2:16
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Connauton11:53
xG 0.29–0.51 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSetoguchi – O'Dell – Kane12:22
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik12:57
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Peluso – Halischuk – Cormier6:32
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Ellerby10:36
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba12:03
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian10:53
xG 0.29–0.77 (28%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).