Tue, Mar 18, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 010 | 015 | 133 |
| PIT | 212 | 19 | 211 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Craig Adams · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:30DALTyler SeguinAssists: Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 15:25PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 13:21PITLee StempniakAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 1:56PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Lee Stempniak, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 12:47PITBrandon SutterSHAssists: Brian Gibbons, Robert Bortuzzo · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:22DALCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:51PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:31PITJoe Vitale: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:10DALRyan Garbutt: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:38DALCody Eakin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:38PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:38PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:38DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:33DALRyan Garbutt: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:16DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:36
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Chiasson – Seguin6:47
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin3:59
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Whitney – Mueller – Nichushkin6:23
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Connauton11:58
xG 0.42–0.30 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Benn – Dillon16:20
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Daley – Goligoski14:06
xG 0.42–1.03 (29%)attempts 10–22goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Stempniak – Crosby8:24
xG 0.75–0.23 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 3–1
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal9:19
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Goc – Vitale – Gibbons2:00
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Adams – Sutter – Gibbons6:04
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Maatta13:49
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Despres13:06
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Orpik – Niskanen12:34
xG 0.31–0.44 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).