Tue, Mar 18, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 215 | 00 | 320 |
| CBJ | 011 | 017 | 119 | 147 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41CARNathan GerbeAssists: Patrick Dwyer · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:23CARAndrei LoktionovPPGWGAssists: Jay Harrison, Riley Nash · Backhand, 0.36 xG2–0
- P2 17:20CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Jay Harrison · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 19:10CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ryan Johansen, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:32CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:05CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:53CBJR.J. Umberger: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:47CBJBoone Jenner: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 8:20CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:07CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:45CARJordan Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:52CBJRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman3:34
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Terry – Nash – Skinner7:39
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Loktionov8:54
xG 0.15–0.93 (14%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Semin – Staal – Staal11:34
xG 0.29–1.18 (20%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Harrison3:01
xG 0.07–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Harrison4:16
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Bellemore10:47
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Johansen – Jenner10:33
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Umberger – Anisimov – Tropp6:58
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Calvert9:10
xG 0.49–0.03 (93%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu7:46
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Wisniewski12:04
xG 1.20–0.24 (83%)attempts 24–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Prout14:46
xG 1.07–0.20 (84%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Savard12:42
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 14–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).