Tue, Mar 18, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 3, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 113 | 17 | 328 |
| MTL | 08 | 216 | 412 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:03COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Paul Stastny, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:44MTLThomas VanekAssists: David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 9:33COLMax TalbotAssists: Matt Duchene, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 10:21MTLTravis MoenAssists: Brandon Prust, Mike Weaver · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 3:33MTLBrandon PrustAssists: Andrei Markov, Alexei Emelin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 10:05COLJamie McGinnAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 14:45MTLThomas VanekPPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 17:40MTLThomas VanekPPAssists: Alexei Emelin, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 19:00MTLDale WeiseENAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:24COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:23MTLThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:13COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:13MTLDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:30MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:46MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P3 13:17COLJean-Sebastien Giguere: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 16:05COLJan Hejda: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene10:39
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McLeod2:30
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche3:42
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon14:31
xG 0.57–0.95 (37%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie11:32
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Benoit – Hejda2:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Benoit – Holden14:15
xG 0.47–0.54 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Prust – Weise5:23
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 2–0
- Brière – Plekanec – Gallagher9:25
xG 0.64–0.62 (51%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Gionta – Eller – Galchenyuk11:57
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Vanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:40
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Tinordi10:21
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Subban16:14
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 0–2
- Markov – Emelin14:13
xG 0.64–0.72 (47%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).