Tue, Mar 18, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 8, Ottawa Senators 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 417 | 313 | 839 |
| OTT | 29 | 016 | 214 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Erik Condra, Marc Methot · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:02NYRRick NashSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 12:44OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 8:56NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Carl Hagelin, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 15:48NYRBenoit PouliotUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 18:44NYRJohn MooreUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG4–2
- P2 19:44NYRRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.31 xG5–2
- P3 1:27OTTMilan MichalekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 2:40NYRDerek StepanAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.10 xG6–3
- P3 4:45NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.17 xG7–3
- P3 7:11OTTBobby RyanAssists: Eric Gryba, Clarke MacArthur · Tip-in, 0.15 xG7–4
- P3 17:30NYRRick NashENAssists: Chris Kreider, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.64 xG8–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:05NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:55OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:48NYRBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:48OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:13OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Brassard – Zuccarello12:19
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Richards – Pouliot – Hagelin9:36
xG 0.22–0.74 (23%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Moore – Boyle – Carcillo9:04
xG 0.19–0.88 (18%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider10:36
xG 0.09–0.87 (10%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman13:59
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Klein – Moore15:11
xG 0.34–1.08 (24%)attempts 18–22goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh16:38
xG 0.82–1.74 (32%)attempts 12–25goals 3–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris11:49
xG 1.48–0.63 (70%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:25
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek11:19
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Condra – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:42
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Cowen15:03
xG 1.88–0.37 (84%)attempts 23–13goals 1–2
- Methot – Karlsson17:29
xG 1.10–0.66 (62%)attempts 23–20goals 2–1
- Phillips – Ceci14:45
xG 0.57–0.71 (44%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).