Tue, Mar 18, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 27 | 011 | 05 | 02 | 225 |
| PHI | 214 | 06 | 014 | 13 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Michal Handzus, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 3:51CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 5:48PHIScott HartnellAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 16:27PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux, Matt Read · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:55PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Mark Streit · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:08PHIMichael Raffl: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:33CHIBrandon Bollig: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:23CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:10PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10CHISheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:08CHIMarian Hossa: Holding2 min
- P2 16:42PHINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P3 0:53CHIBryan Bickell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:14CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:20PHIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:52CHIBryan Bickell: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:52PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:52PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:52CHIBryan Bickell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Handzus – Sharp – Shaw5:27
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Bickell – Kane – Smith8:34
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Regin – Kruger – Bollig4:48
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Versteeg – Toews12:06
xG 0.28–1.40 (17%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Hjalmarsson2:42
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy2:22
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Seabrook3:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Read – Couturier3:00
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier6:43
xG 0.65–0.20 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn6:43
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:17
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann3:01
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn10:48
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Schenn10:12
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).