Tue, Mar 18, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 011 | 19 | 330 |
| ANA | 111 | 015 | 119 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11WSHJoel WardAssists: Jason Chimera, Patrick Wey · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 3:10ANABen LovejoyAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Hampus Lindholm · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:50WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–1
- P3 1:32ANAMathieu PerreaultAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 2:44WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 19:29ANASaku Koivu: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:05WSHCasey Wellman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:15WSHTroy Brouwer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:00WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:31WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:36ANAMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25WSHJay Beagle: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:23ANADaniel Winnik: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:53ANAAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53WSHJay Beagle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr11:46
xG 1.50–0.34 (82%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Beagle – Johansson11:28
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Kuznetsov11:28
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Penner – Wellman – Wilson7:29
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Wey13:24
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Green – Hillen16:06
xG 1.08–0.87 (55%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson13:23
xG 0.27–0.52 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Getzlaf – Perry9:23
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano11:34
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Perreault – Silfverberg7:33
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bonino – Maroon – Palmieri6:46
xG 0.11–0.60 (16%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Lindholm15:52
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa16:45
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Robidas – Allen12:45
xG 0.48–1.35 (26%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).