Tue, Mar 18, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 314 | 02 | 324 |
| SJS | 010 | 115 | 129 | 254 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:02SJSMartin HavlatPPAssists: Brent Burns, Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 11:23FLABrandon PirriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:40FLAQuinton HowdenAssists: Brandon Pirri, Jimmy Hayes · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 19:45FLAScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Joey Crabb, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 16:57SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:25FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:17SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:29SJSAdam Burish: Holding2 min
- P2 2:32FLAJimmy Hayes: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:05FLAEd Jovanovski: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:08FLAQuinton Howden: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:32FLADylan Olsen: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:41FLAQuinton Howden: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Crabb – Trocheck9:44
xG 0.68–0.21 (77%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Gomez – Barch – Wilson3:34
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Howden9:36
xG 0.87–1.16 (43%)attempts 11–20goals 2–0
- Boyes – Upshall – Bjugstad11:35
xG 0.32–1.62 (16%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:26
xG 0.92–0.86 (52%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Robak – Kulikov13:50
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
- Jovanovski – Olsen9:00
xG 0.22–1.41 (14%)attempts 6–20goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Sheppard – Wingels8:42
xG 1.00–0.20 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto11:13
xG 1.17–0.57 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Burish – Kennedy – Desjardins4:57
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Irwin7:50
xG 1.04–0.17 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Hannan – Boyle7:53
xG 0.96–0.56 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun2:35
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).