Wed, Mar 19, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 4, Winnipeg Jets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 212 | 15 | 18 | 02 | 427 |
| WPG | 28 | 111 | 17 | 11 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Matt Duchene, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 3:15WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:08WPGEric TangradiAssists: Blake Wheeler, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 17:47COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Andre Benoit, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- P2 12:02WPGEvander KaneAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Paul Postma · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P2 19:29COLNick HoldenAssists: Tyson Barrie, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 4:58WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 10:23COLCody McLeodAssists: Max Talbot, Nate Guenin · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 1:42WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Paul Postma, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:49WPGAdam Pardy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:58COLPatrick Bordeleau: Interference2 min
- P2 3:58COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:58WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:46COLAndre Benoit: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Bordeleau – Carey – Malone3:51
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene14:22
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche11:32
xG 0.29–0.88 (25%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Guenin5:21
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Sarich – Benoit2:03
xG 0.05–0.12 (32%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Benoit – Holden7:44
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSetoguchi – O'Dell – Kane13:32
xG 1.09–0.33 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Tangradi15:30
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik14:12
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Peluso – Halischuk – Cormier4:05
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Postma14:00
xG 1.10–0.31 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Ellerby15:37
xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba17:43
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).