Thu, Mar 20, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 06 | 310 | 01 | 323 |
| NJD | 110 | 18 | 110 | 11 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:58NJDMichael RyderAssists: Patrik Elias, Andy Greene · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:35NJDMark FayneSHAssists: Adam Henrique, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 0:21MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 3:34NJDJaromir JagrPPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.47 xG1–3
- P3 10:36MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 15:28MINMatt CookeAssists: Marco Scandella, Jonas Brodin · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 2:00NJDAndy GreeneGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:00NJDAdam Henrique: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:27MINZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:59MINNate Prosser: Elbowing5 min
- P1 17:59MINNate Prosser: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 8:07NJDTuomo Ruutu: Holding2 min
- P2 18:36NJDAndy Greene: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:53MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:59NJDMark Fayne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:08MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P3 10:55NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
- P3 13:26NJDTravis Zajac: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Cooke – McCormick – Brodziak4:22
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund8:15
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Heatley – Coyle – Niederreiter6:58
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Koivu – Moulson – Fontaine8:13
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Scandella3:34
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stoner – Prosser2:44
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:16
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Ruutu – Zajac10:51
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Elias – Ryder – Henrique9:05
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Clowe – Gionta4:14
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Clowe – Josefson2:59
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Merrill12:14
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov9:23
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Fayne – Greene11:54
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).