Thu, Mar 20, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 012 | 117 | 16 | 235 |
| PHI | 212 | 013 | 24 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23PHIMark StreitAssists: Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:21PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–2
- P2 12:48DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P3 12:21PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 12:51DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
- P3 16:48PHIMichael RafflAssists: Sean Couturier, Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:27DALRyan Garbutt: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:10DALJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:19PHIZac Rinaldo: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:48PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Chiasson – Seguin12:53
xG 1.17–0.43 (73%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Sceviour – Eakin12:20
xG 0.66–0.11 (85%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt10:54
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Whitney – Mueller – Nichushkin4:49
xG 0.03–0.21 (13%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon17:46
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Daley – Goligoski18:25
xG 0.89–0.62 (59%)attempts 16–23goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Rome9:48
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:04
xG 0.32–0.09 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier9:26
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl3:55
xG 0.02–0.29 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn9:51
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Schenn14:41
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:04
xG 0.71–0.93 (43%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Streit – Grossmann16:01
xG 0.24–0.71 (25%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).