Thu, Mar 20, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 116 | 113 | 111 | 340 |
| MTL | 112 | 07 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:53MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 15:53CBJDerek MacKenzieSHAssists: Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–1
- P2 6:53CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Blake Comeau, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 7:46MTLThomas VanekAssists: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 16:59CBJRyan JohansenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:06MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P1 13:37CBJRyan Johansen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:34CBJRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:02MTLMax Pacioretty: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:02CBJRyan Johansen: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:34MTLMike Weaver: Holding2 min
- P2 11:41MTLThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:58MTLRyan White: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:20CBJBlake Comeau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:39MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:32MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:21CBJNikita Nikitin: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 8:36MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Johansen – Jenner6:57
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Foligno – Anisimov – Tropp8:57
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 16–3goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu5:12
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson8:10
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Savard10:13
xG 0.84–0.23 (78%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski12:52
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Prout11:06
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Plekanec – Gallagher5:14
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moen – Eller2:18
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Eller – Galchenyuk2:52
xG 0.03–0.01 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Eller2:26
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Tinordi9:40
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Markov – Emelin9:36
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban17:29
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).