Thu, Mar 20, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 315 | 113 | 04 | 443 |
| DET | 18 | 110 | 28 | 14 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:21DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Johan Franzen, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:35DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 15:17PITLee StempniakAssists: Chris Kunitz, Robert Bortuzzo · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 15:42PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 17:58PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: James Neal, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 9:59DETTomas TatarAssists: Riley Sheahan, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 12:17DETTodd BertuzziUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 14:17PITCraig AdamsAssists: Brandon Sutter, Brian Gibbons · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 4:59DETDaniel AlfredssonGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:31DETDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:47PITMatt Niskanen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:19PITJames Neal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:43PITChris Kunitz: Holding2 min
- P2 10:06DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
- P2 10:37PITJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:42DETTomas Tatar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:48DETLandon Ferraro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:51PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P3 8:34DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:54PITJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P3 16:14DETDavid Legwand: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:14DETDavid Legwand: Butt ending5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal8:07
xG 0.78–0.11 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Adams – Sutter – Gibbons5:56
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Goc – Glass – Vitale5:23
xG 0.26–0.11 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Stempniak – Crosby10:10
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Despres10:03
xG 0.76–0.13 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Orpik – Niskanen12:33
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Bortuzzo2:15
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Miller – Glendening6:42
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Ferraro – Glendening2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Emmerton – Ferraro – Pulkkinen4:29
xG 0.02–0.08 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:22
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – DeKeyser2:28
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Smith12:08
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith2:30
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).