Thu, Mar 20, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 116 | 212 | 336 |
| EDM | 114 | 013 | 09 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:48EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Justin Schultz, David Perron · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:16BUFCory ConacherPPAssists: Jamie McBain · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:09BUFCory ConacherGWGAssists: Cody Hodgson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 4:44BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis, Cory Conacher · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:43EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:43BUFZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:40BUFCory Conacher: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:40EDMBen Scrivens: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:57BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:48BUFTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:06BUFMike Weber: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:09BUFTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:56EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:52EDMRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:14BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:03BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:03EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:18BUFCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno15:20
xG 1.21–0.68 (64%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Hodgson – Conacher10:32
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- D'Agostini – Deslauriers – Flynn6:49
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott2:03
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Ristolainen11:53
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Weber – McBain10:11
xG 0.66–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Ruhwedel15:10
xG 0.51–0.46 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Hendricks – Gordon7:09
xG 0.08–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lander – Pitlick – Nugent-Hopkins8:03
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Gagner – Perron – Hall16:12
xG 0.56–1.37 (29%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ference – Schultz12:16
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Larsen – Klefbom3:40
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fraser – Klefbom6:35
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).