Thu, Mar 20, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Florida Panthers 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 06 | 110 | 123 |
| PHX | 27 | 08 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 18:38PHXAntoine VermetteGWGAssists: Michael Stone, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P3 15:53FLAScott GomezAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:56FLAJimmy Hayes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:33PHXChris Summers: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:35PHXBrandon McMillan: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:41PHXMichael Stone: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:13FLAJoey Crabb: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:13PHXChris Summers: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Barch – Wilson4:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Bjugstad2:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Crabb – Trocheck11:03
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Gomez – Boyes – Upshall4:47
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobak – Kulikov16:39
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Olsen6:22
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Kulikov3:31
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Korpikoski – Boedker10:37
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Doan – Ribeiro – McMillan3:45
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Chipchura6:18
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moss – McMillan4:06
xG 0.06–0.11 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSummers – Stone10:24
xG 0.65–0.18 (78%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle18:45
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson17:50
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).